XRP (XRP) has rallied more than 30% in the last three months, and fresh technical and on-chain signals suggest the XRP/USD pair may have more upside ahead.
XRP/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Key takeaways:
- Exchange outflows, positive whale flows and strong ETF demand raise XRP’s bullish outlook.
- A wedge setup sees the price rising roughly 30% by June.
Nearly 35 million XRP in exchange outflows boost upside case
As of Saturday, XRP Ledger (XRPL) had recorded nearly 35 million XRP in exchange outflows in the last 24 hours, logging its sixth-largest daily outflow of the year, according to Santiment.
Large exchange outflows typically suggest investors are moving tokens into private wallets or custody, reducing the amount of XRP immediately available for sale. Earlier this year, these spikes preceded modest rallies in the XRP price.
XRP Ledger exchange outflows versus XRP price. Source: Santiment
In March, a similar spike in exchange outflows preceded a roughly 20% rebound in XRP. February’s outflow surge was followed by an even stronger move, with XRP rising about 48&–50%.
Those precedents strengthen the view that the latest withdrawal spike may lead to higher XRP prices in May.
Also, US-based spot XRP ETFs have witnessed three consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling about $82.88 million as of Saturday, according to SoSoValue data. The streak pushed the total assets under management to $1.1 billion.
XRP ETF weekly net flows. Source: SoSoValue
This indicates an increased institutional appetite for XRP products.
Positive whale flows reinforce upside sentiment
XRP whale flows have also flipped positive, according to CryptoQuant data, suggesting larger wallets are now accumulating rather than distributing.
The 90-day moving average of XRPL whale flows has moved back above zero after spending much of early 2026 in negative territory.
XRP whale flow 30DMA. Source: CryptoQuant
Historically, positive whale-flow regimes have preceded stronger XRP price trends, including the May–July 2025 rally.
The shift supports the broader accumulation narrative already visible in exchange outflows and ETF inflows.
XRP wedge setup hints at 30% rally next
XRP’s technical structure supports the upside case.
The XRP/USD pair has spent the past two years inside a falling wedge, defined by two downward-sloping, converging trend lines. Its April rebound from the lower trend line support now raises the odds of a move toward the upper boundary.
XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
That target zone aligns with the 50-week EMA and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $1.87–$1.89, about 30% above current levels, by June.
Related: XRP holders back in profit as price eyes potential 55% breakout
Conversely, a decisive break below the wedge’s lower trend line risks invalidating the bullish narrative altogether.
It may instead raise the odds of the price declining toward the $0.98 mark, aligning with the wedge’s apex point and the 0.786 Fib line.