The odds of the United States invading Iran this year surged to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform on Sunday, following comments made by US President Donald Trump on social media.
The odds of an invasion before 2027 are still down from the high of 68% on March 29, which occurred due to a US troop buildup and comments from the Trump administration that the US was considering capturing Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil shipping station.
The Polymarket trading volume for a potential US invasion of Iran was about $3.74 million at the time of publication.
On Tuesday, after Trump signaled that the US might leave Iran in the next two to three weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped by about 2.6% and the S&P 500 index added about 2.91%. However, Trump reversed course with his latest statement on Sunday. He wrote:
“Tuesday will be power plant day, and bridge day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it! Open the fuckin’ strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell.”
Bitcoin’s price remained anchored around the $67,500 level following the comments, according to data from TradingView.
The mixed signals from the Trump administration on the war and how long it will last continue to create investor uncertainty and an impact on all risk asset prices, as market analysts, traders and economists attempt to forecast the effects of the war.
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“I wish Trump would stop threatening Iranian civilian infrastructure. It’s a lose-lose for us: backing down hurts his negotiating credibility,” economist Peter Schiff said in response to Trump’s comments.
“Carrying it out escalates the war, damages US standing, generates sympathy for Iran and fuels Iranian hatred for America,” Schiff continued.
“I assumed this was a fake, it isn’t — wild,” podcaster and Bitcoin advocate Peter McCormack said.
Brent crude oil, the most widely used pricing benchmark for the international spot oil market, remains elevated, closing Thursday at more than $109 per barrel. Trading is scheduled to resume on Monday following the Easter holiday weekend.