After bumpy opening day, the Force has thrown its weight behind Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu.
On Friday, Jon Favreau‘s feature film adaptation of his hit Disney+ series appeared at risk of scoring the lowest box office opening of any title in the storied Star Wars franchise since Disney bought Lucasfilm in 2012.
But all bets were off when the movie snagged a franchise-best audience score of 89 percent on Rotten Tomatoes — the best of any Star Wars film since Disney took over — and equally strong exit score on PostTrak, especially among youngsters as Baby Yoda, aka Grogu, made the leap from the small screen to the big screen. (Disney insiders believe Mando could become the most family friendly film of any title in the iconic series, at least in modern times.)
Still, Disney and Lucasfilm executives were no doubt on pins and needles when Mando topped Friday’s domestic box office chart with a worrisome, series-low $33 million from 4,300 theaters, behind the $35.4 million earned by the ill-fated Solo: A Star Wars Story on its opening day in 2018, not adjusted for inflation. But the long Memorial Day weekend is far from over.
Walk-up business was indeed strong on Saturday, with Mando earning more than Solo. Hence, the studio is now projecting that the $165 million film will open well ahead of expectations domestically with $102 million domestically and $165 millon globally. The big wild card is walk-up business on Sunday. That is where families, who are notoriously hard to track, will come into play.
Kids, especially boys under the age of 13, are going nuts for the film, giving it an A CinemaScore and 5/5 stars on exit polling service PostTrak (parents gave it 5/5 stars as well. General audiences bestowed the film with an A- CinemaScore and a stellar 4/5 stars on PostTrak. Reviewers aren’t as enthusiastic, although the critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes had risen several points by Friday morning to 64 percent before dropping to 62 percent. (Solo fared better with critics at 69 percent but was slapped with a dreadful 63 percent audience score.)
The new tentpole, which marks the first Star Wars film to play in theaters in seven years, continues the story of The Mandalorian, Favreau’s record-breaking series that helped launch Disney+ and introduced the world to Baby Yoda (Grogu), who became a beacon of hope just before the pandemic struck and a merchandising breadwinner worth north of $1 billion.
Heading into the weekend, tracking services showed Mandalorian and Grogu opening to roughly $82 million at the domestic box office for the four days, while some exhibitors saw it coming in as high as $95 million or as low as $70 million.
By Saturday morning, Disney insiders said the movie was on course to earn a better-than-expected $92 million to $96 million for the four-day holiday weekend, including somewhere in the $77 million range for the three days. Rival studios were more bullish than Disney in predicting a four-day domestic opening of $95 million to $100 million for Mandalorian.
That’s still behind Solo, however, which posted a four-day domestic opening of $103 million on its way to topping out at less than $400 million globally in a low point for the franchise.
Disney continues to point out that Mando began its life on the small screen, so it is an entirely different proposition from previous titles in the Star Wars pantheon, and introduces new characters not tied to the saga movies or stand-alone features. And if recent audience hits, including Project Hail Mary, are any indication, it could have long legs. The studio also notes that box office is just one slice of the larger revenue pie a theatrical release will generate for the entire Star Wars franchise, including toy sales or increased Disney+ viewership.
The movie sees Pedro Pascal return as the Mandalorian, a bounty hunter also known as Din Djarin, who is charged with protecting Grogu. Favreau directed from a script he wrote with Noah Kloor and Dave Filoni, who earlier this year was upped to oversee the creative direction of Lucasfilm as president and chief creative officer following Kathleen Kennedy’s departure (he was a George Lucas protégé).
In the film, the Mandalorian is tasked by Sigourney Weaver’s Colonel Ward of the New Republic to rescue Rotta the Hutt, voiced by Jeremy Allen White. Martin Scorsese also voices a memorable, four-armed food stand chef.
The other big headline of the Memorial Day weekend is the runaway horror hit Obsession, directed by Curry Barker of YouTube fame. The film, from Focus Features and Blumhouse-Atomic Monster, looks to come in at No. 2 in its sophomore outing with $22.4 million, for an almost unheard of 30 percent increase over its opening weekend.
Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic also continues to defy expectations as it crosses the $300 million mark domestically for a global cume north of $700 million.
More to come.
This story was originally published on May 23 at 9:53 a.m.