The analysis is based on rolling monthly 15-year windows from 1965 to 2025 and could be improved in future research using moment-match parametric Monte Carlo simulations or bootstrapping from observed returns.
Future research could also incorporate longer time horizons, multi-factor portfolios, additional asset classes, dynamic withdrawal policies, and regime-based risk management techniques.
Distributions were set as a percentage of the portfolio as opposed to a hard initial dollar amount, both practical and behaviorally driven. However, there are many other acceptable and commonly used ways to take distributions, like the most common 4% starting amount, then linearly adjusted for inflation (CPI). Future research could investigate how various portfolio designs affect the different withdrawal methods.
Appendix & Citations
Data Source: Compustat.
Calculation: Hartford Equity Modeling Platform.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; January 9, 2026.
Style Definitions:
Top 500 Value: US top 500 stocks top 30% based on composite value as defined by multiple equally weighted valuation metrics to arrive at an aggregated valuation metric. Valuation metrics include: P/E, EBITDA/EV, operating cash flow/EV, revenue/EV, and B/P Yield (used only in financials and real estate as a replacement to EBITDA/EV), then cap weighted.
Top 500 Low Volatility: US Top 500 Stocks top 30% based on a composite volatility score defined by multiple equality weighted volatility metrics to arrive at an aggregated volatility metric. Volatility metrics include three-year weekly beta and six-month daily standard deviation, then cap weighted.
Top 500 Low Volatility VMQ: US Top 500 Stocks top 50% based on a composite volatility score defined by multiple equality weighted volatility metrics to arrive at an aggregated volatility metric. Volatility metrics include three-year weekly beta and six-month daily standard deviation, then cap weighted. Then top 50% based on combined score of 50% value, 30% momentum and 20% quality. Combined scores for financial and real estate sector companies are assigned weightings of 65% Value and 35% Momentum. Composite value as defined by multiple equally weighted valuation metrics to arrive at an aggregated valuation metric. Valuation metrics include: P/E, EBITDA/EV, operating cash flow/EV, revenue/EV, and B/P Yield (used only in financials and real estate as a replacement to EBITDA/EV), then cap weighted. Composite momentum equally weights Last 12 ex-1 monthly returns and last 6 ex-1 monthly returns to arrive at an aggregated momentum metric. Composite quality uses gross profitability to total assets.
Top 500 Growth: US top 500 stocks top 30% based on five years sales growth, then cap weighted.
Top 500 Cap Weighted: US Top 500 stocks, cap weighted.
Top 500 Equal Weighted: US Top 500 stocks, equal weighted.