Bitcoin (BTC) erased losses after Monday’s Wall Street open as markets largely shrugged off the return of the US-Iran war.
Key points:
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Bitcoin joins stocks in a muted reaction to the latest US-Iran deterioration and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
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BTC price manages to top 2.5% daily upside despite the lack of resolution.
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Analysis warns that Bitcoin market strength is begin driven by Strategy and speculators.
Markets avoid volatility as BTC price stays green
Data from TradingView showed 2.5% daily gains for BTC/USD, which had closed the week below $74,000.
US stocks saw modest downside as the week began, but the losses remained modest, while oil began retracing an initial move toward $90.
The repositioning came a day after US President Donald Trump announced a fresh round of negotiations over Iran in Pakistan.
“My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social on Sunday.
Trump appeared to dismiss the significance of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, calling its announcement “strange.”
Responding, crypto trading company QCP Capital suggested that markets had already readjusted expectations of the war’s outcome and timeline for it.
“Despite the pullback in spot alongside renewed tensions, volatility has stayed notably subdued, hovering near year-to-date lows,” it wrote in its latest “Market Color” update.
“This disconnect between realised risk and implied pricing suggests investors are recalibrating expectations toward a more episodic pattern of escalation: on-and-off disruptions around the Strait, paired with cycles of rhetoric and de-escalation. In effect, markets are beginning to price duration rather than intensity, pointing to a conflict that may be more protracted than initially assumed, but still contained within current bounds.”
QCP added that even with the US-Iran ceasefire due to officially expire within days, that event was unlikely to be definitive.
“The base case, for now, remains one of range-bound volatility, rather than a decisive breakout across major asset classes,” it concluded.
Strategy, speculators under the microscope
Analyzing short-term BTC price moves, J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, had some bad news for bulls.
Related: BTC price due new highs: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin’s recent local highs, he suggested, were simply a result of buying pressure from Strategy and speculative traders, with sellers stepping in to take profit, halting the rally.
“Where does that leave price? Not far,” he summarized in an X thread.
Maartunn said that BTC/USD remained stuck below “key resistance,” including the cost basis of short-term holders (STHs) near $83,000.
“Long-Term Holders keep accumulating, and Strategy isn’t done yet,” he acknowledged.
“The key question: is it enough to push Bitcoin higher? For now, this still looks like a bear market rally… But a strong breakout could quickly shift the trend.”
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