The Australia-Tuvalu climate migration treaty is a drop in the ocean

Last updated: July 2, 2025 7:49 pm

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FUNAFUTI, TUVALU - NOVEMBER 28: An aerial view of downtown and the airport runway, between the Pacific Ocean (L) and lagoon (R), on November 28, 2019 in Funafuti, Tuvalu. The??low-lying??South Pacific island nation??of about 11,000 people has been classified as ???extremely vulnerable??? to climate change by the??United Nations Development Programme.??The world???s fourth-smallest country is struggling to cope with climate change related impacts including five millimeter per year sea level rise (above the global average), tidal and wave driven flooding, storm surges, rising temperatures, saltwater intrusion and coastal erosion on its nine coral atolls and islands, the highest of which rises about 15 feet above sea level. In addition, the severity of cyclones and droughts in the Pacific Island region are forecast to increase due to global warming. Some scientists have predicted that Tuvalu could become inundated and uninhabitable in 50 to 100 years or less if sea level rise continues.??The country is working toward a goal of 100 percent renewable power generation by 2025 in an effort to curb pollution and set an example for larger nations. Tuvalu is also exploring a plan to build an artificial island. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

A lifeline has been extended to the people of Tuvalu, a low-lying Pacific nation where rising sea levels are creating ever more problems. Each year, Australia will grant residency to 280 Tuvaluans. The agreement could see everyone currently living in Tuvalu move within just a few decades.

Effectively the world’s first climate migration agreement, the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union will also provide adaptation funds to help those who stay behind.

Is this a model for how climate migration can be managed in an orderly way, before disaster strikes? Far from it. To get this deal, Tuvalu must allow Australia a say in future security and defence matters. Few other countries are likely to agree to similar terms.

Tuvalu’s population is also very small. Taking in around 10,000 climate migrants would be inconsequential for a country of 28 million like Australia. Worldwide, it is estimated that between 25 million and 1 billion people might be forced to move by 2050 because of climate change and other environmental factors. Where will they go?

One billion people might be forced to move by 2050 due to environmental factors

Many argue that the wealthy countries that emitted most of the carbon dioxide that is warming the planet have a moral duty to help people displaced by climate change. But these kinds of discussions have yet to be translated into the necessary legal recognition or acceptance of forced climate migrants. On the contrary, many higher-income nations seem to be becoming more hostile to migrants of any kind.

There has been a little progress in setting up “loss and damage” funds to compensate lower-income countries for the destruction caused by global warming. This could help limit the need for climate migration in the future – but the money promised so far is a fraction of what is required.

The most important thing nations should be doing is limiting future warming by cutting emissions – but globally these are still growing. Sadly, the Falepili Union is a drop in the ocean, not a turning of the tide.

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