NOAA predicts quieter Atlantic hurricane season for 2026—but the Pacific is another story
This year’s expected El Niño could hamper hurricanes in the Atlantic but boost them in the central and eastern Pacific
Hurricane Florence in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the U.S. in 2018, as seen from the International Space Station.
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be “below normal,” according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with an estimated one to three “major hurricanes” brewing in the Atlantic Ocean.
The Atlantic hurricane season spans from the start of June through the end of November. During that time, there will be about a 55 percent chance of “below normal” hurricane season conditions, a 35 percent chance of “near normal” conditions and just a 10 percent chance of “above normal” ones, said NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs at a press conference on Thursday. That’s the equivalent of eight to 14 “named storms”—both tropical storms and hurricanes—including between one and three “major hurricanes,” Jacobs said. Those are hurricanes with a rating of Category 3, 4 or 5, meaning storms with sustained winds at or above 111 miles per hour.
Officials at Thursday’s press conference repeatedly stressed the importance of preparing for hurricanes, regardless of any prediction. “Don’t let words like ‘below average …’ change the way you’re prepared,” said National Weather Service director Ken Graham. “Even in ‘below average’ [years], even if you have two storms, they could be big ones. We’ve got to be ready.” In other words, what matters isn’t so much how many storms there are but where they hit.
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NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook.
Part of the reason for the lower number of anticipated Atlantic storms is the expected return of El Niño, a cyclic climate event that can influence wind patterns across the globe. El Niño can add more “vertical wind shear”—a change in wind speed from low to high levels of the atmosphere—in the Atlantic, which make it harder for hurricanes to form there.
The Pacific is another story. There, El Niño tends to reduce vertical wind shear, Jacobs said, making it easier for hurricanes to form. This year NOAA predicts a 70 percent chance of “above normal” activity in the central and eastern Pacific, including 15 to 22 named storms in the eastern Pacific and between five and nine major hurricanes.
Underlying all of this, of course, is climate change. Warmer ocean temperatures fuel hurricanes and can make them more intense. One 2024 analysis, for instance, estimated that climate change was responsible for boosting wind speeds of all of the Atlantic hurricanes that season, including pushing Hurricanes Milton and Beryl into Category 5 storms.
The last time NOAA predicted a below normal season was 2015, said NOAA hurricane forecaster Matt Rosencrans at the same press event.
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